Iran has something the DPRK does not, though, Hormuz. It’s essentially an economic nuke, though obviously it isn’t as effective at preventing attack, it seems very effective at flipping the tides without inviting an actual nuke on them in retaliation like MAD doctrine would result in.
It’s sort of one-time-use though. Now that it’s been used, the gulf states are building pipelines to bypass the gulf and vulnerable countries are taking the opportunity to decarbonize. If the straight opened tomorrow, these countries would continue those efforts to reduce their strategic vulnerability. It won’t be as strong of a deterrent the second time around.
Also, a nuke is supposed to deter aggression. It didn’t do that.
It’s not a 1 to 1, and the strait still provides a huge capacity for oil flow that pipelines do not have. Further still, the world is transitioning to solar (at greater and lesser rates), reducing the importance of pipelines anyways.
Iran has something the DPRK does not, though, Hormuz. It’s essentially an economic nuke, though obviously it isn’t as effective at preventing attack, it seems very effective at flipping the tides without inviting an actual nuke on them in retaliation like MAD doctrine would result in.
It’s sort of one-time-use though. Now that it’s been used, the gulf states are building pipelines to bypass the gulf and vulnerable countries are taking the opportunity to decarbonize. If the straight opened tomorrow, these countries would continue those efforts to reduce their strategic vulnerability. It won’t be as strong of a deterrent the second time around.
Also, a nuke is supposed to deter aggression. It didn’t do that.
It’s not a 1 to 1, and the strait still provides a huge capacity for oil flow that pipelines do not have. Further still, the world is transitioning to solar (at greater and lesser rates), reducing the importance of pipelines anyways.