Russian forces’ ability to advance on and eventually seize Shevchenkove requires first seizing Kupyansk, however, and Russia has proven unable or unwilling to dedicate the necessary forces and means to repelling Ukrainian counterattacks and conducting offensive operations at a large enough scale to make tactically- and operationally-significant advances near, within, and beyond Kupyansk.[2] Gerasimov and other senior Russian officials have repeatedly made aggrandized claims of Russian advances on the frontline as part of a cognitive warfare effort based upon the false premise that Russian forces are advancing simultaneously across the theater and that Ukrainian defensive lines are imminently collapsing. Ukrainian defensive lines are holding against Russia’s Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, and Ukrainian forces are contesting the tactical initiative in several areas of the frontline, however, including in the Kupyansk direction.[3]

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These aggrandized claims of fictional advances along with milblogger complaints may indicate that the highest echelon of the Russian military command is either unaware of or unwilling to admit the realities of the battlefield even to itself, and is therefore allowing its own falsehoods to influence Russian operational and strategic planning.

Russian milbloggers continue to warn that Ukrainian counterattacks and false reports of advances in other areas of the frontline are creating difficult situations to which the Russian military command cannot adequately respond.