Factoring (new observations) in the acceleration of the rate of global temperature, the Arctic will tip from absorbing carbon to producing carbon, reversing earlier expectations.
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Under high-emission pathways, the northern soil carbon balance shifts from a sink to a source of 32 petagrams of carbon, advancing the reversal reported in earlier studies into the 21st century.
32 Petagrams is about equivalent to an extra 32 years of the current rate of emissions.
To add further insult to injury, the Arctic soils had been counted on to absorb atmospheric carbon over time and they will now only do that for half of the amount expected leaving about 30 more petagrams in the atmosphere that was supposed to come out.