cross-posted from: https://mander.xyz/post/55291154
Japan is reassessing how it prepares for war, turning to Ukraine’s battlefield experience and low-cost drones capable of intercepting Shaheds as tensions around Taiwan and Chinese military activity continue to rise, The Japan Times reported on July 14.
Japanese defense officials are paying closer attention to the way Ukraine uses inexpensive FPV drones and other unmanned systems to destroy or intercept weapons that cost many times more.
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That battlefield equation is challenging Japan’s traditional reliance on expensive, highly advanced defense systems. Ukraine has demonstrated that large numbers of affordable drones can provide an effective answer to costly military equipment and mass aerial attacks.
The lessons are particularly relevant as Tokyo prepares to defend remote islands and respond to potential large-scale pressure in the Indo-Pacific.
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the scary thing about robotic warfare is the player with the greatest manufacturing capacity wins.
Feels like Taiwan should also be working on churning these things out
If it comes to a contest between production capacity for weaponized drones between Taiwan and China, I think that Taiwan is going to be in trouble. China overwhelmingly dominates global drone production capacity.
If it came to a contest of that sort between the US and China, the US isn’t, in 2026, going to be able to compete in mass either.
searches
The drone market is unlike any other advanced technology sector. Companies based in China and subsidized by the Chinese government control 90% of the consumer drone market, 70% or more of the enterprise market, and 92% of the state and local first responder market. Chinese company DJI holds the vast majority of that market share.
That did not happen by accident. In 2015, China launched “Made in China 2025,” a ten-year, whole-of-society effort to invest in key industries, including drones, to ensure China’s world leadership and market dominance.
The US does have various projects to aim to counter that, but does not yet, as of 2026, have that sort of capability. If China started maximum production of weaponized drones right now, using existing civilian and military infrastructure, I don’t think that we’d presently have a defensive-type counter. We’d probably have to go on offense, try to destroy their industrial capacity.
One project I recall some discussion about is Replicator.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Replicator_(United_States_military)
Replicator is the name of a United States Department of Defense program intended to pioneer ways to cheaply produce large amounts of weapons or systems for the U.S. military.
It was announced on Aug. 23, 2023, by Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks as a means of quickly producing weapons to deter and counter China. In her announcement, Hicks said the first type of weapons to be produced under Replicator were to be autonomous systems; she did not specify whether these would be, for example, aerial drones or unmanned vessels.[1]
The Replicator program announced its first batch of contracts on May 6, 2024; they included purchases of uncrewed watercraft, aerial drones, and anti-drone defenses “of various sizes and payloads from several traditional and non-traditional vendors.” Some other contracts “remain classified, including others in the maritime domain and some in the counter-UAS portfolio”, a Defense Department release said.[2]
On September 30, 2024, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin III announced a new phase of the program, dubbed Replicator 2, that would focus on anti-drone defensive systems.[3]
The overall result has been advantage to defenders generally
China wants to pillage Taiwan then South Korea and finally Japan for their sick twisted idea of revenge.
Affordable drones are the answer to cheap drones attacks. They are not an answer to the better missles China has. Still important because if China think they will work they will use them because they are good at cheap
