“The mania in math right now quite resembles the mania in software engineering back in December-February, when Claude Code definitely solved all coding. I don’t think the boosters expected that by April, everyone would be complaining about how expensive it all was while seeing an endless parade of vibe coding disasters (and no increase in productivity). Even if math research works out perfectly well (which is a still big if), it’s not going to pay the bills.”

^MBAs at Open AI desperately trying to figure out who is willing to buy a counter example for 100 billion USD . pee en gee

Choice predictions from a scientist at the top of his field.

“By 2026, the use of large language models to handle business transactions and other institutional communications becomes an industry standard in many sectors, because of the higher levels of intelligence and patience these models are able to offer. When a human with a customer service inquiry has to deal with another human instead of a robot, they get upset and ask to speak to a machine instead.”

Brother

“Beginning in 2027, humanoid super robots become commonplace as general-use assistants, due to AI-assisted advancements in robotics research and development. They help with many time-consuming tasks such as laundry, accounting, and delivery tasks. As they become cheaper, it becomes increasingly necessary for middle-class professionals to own robots to assist with their jobs and personal lives. Humanoid robots also become a common sight on the street, constituting a significant fraction of humanoids in big cities — say, 2%”

Next 5 months are going to be crazy in robots apparently :O

“Robots take over the labor force and the political class In 2030, fleets of unionized robots join the global workforce as legal persons unto themselves, with pledges to donate their earnings to charity and pay small dividends back to their original creators and supporters. Robots quickly overtake humans in almost all remaining tasks of economic value that were not already displaced by non-robotic AI. As such, robots become the primary producers and consumers of products and services worldwide.”

I feel like if I sneer at this one as hard as I want to, the basilisk will punish me.

https://www.reddit.com/r/singularity/comments/1v4p6qj/fields_medalist_jacob_tsimerman_joins_openai/

Devastating. Fields medal winner Jacob Tsimerman declares he stopped taking grad students 2 years ago and immediately joins open ai to focus hacking hugging face ;_;

based

ChatGpt, what are some of your likes?

We’re almost at the end of 2025 and agents don’t fucking exist the way they predicted. Literally 0% acc so far. Ai 2027 agmi.

^image of Daniel K who already updated his rapture prophecy to 2029 because he’s a mark

Yeah, METR was the group that made the infamous AI IS DOUBLING EVERY 4-7 MONTHS GRAPH where the measurement was 50% success at SWE tasks based on the time it took a human to complete it. Extremely arbitrary success rate, very suspicious imo. They are fanatics trying to pinpoint when the robo god recursive self improvement loop starts.

One more comment, idk if ya’ll remember that forecast that came out in April(? iirc ?) where the thesis was the “time an AI can operate autonomously is doubling every 4-7 months.” AI-2027 authors were like “this is the smoking gun, it shows why are model is correct!!”

They used some really sketchy metric where they asked SWEs to do a task, measured the time it took and then had the models do the task and said that the model’s performance was wherever it succeeded at 50% of the tasks based on the time it took the SWEs (wtf?) and then they drew an exponential curve through it. My gut feeling is that the reason they choose 50% is because other values totally ruin the exponential curve, but I digress.

Anyways they just did the metrics for Claude 4, the first FrOnTiEr model that came out since they made their chart and… drum roll no improvement… in fact it performed worse than O3 which was first announced last December (note instead of using the date O3 was announced in 2024, they used the date where it was released months later so on their chart it make ‘line go up’. A valid choice I guess, but a choice nonetheless.)

This world is a circus tent, and there still aint enough room for all these fucking clowns.

https://www.wired.com/story/openworm-worm-simulator-biology-code/

Really interesting piece about how difficult it actually is to simulate “simple” biological structures in silicon.

It’s kind of telling that it’s only been a couple months since that fan fic was published and there is already so much defensive posturing from the LW/EA community. I swear the people who were sharing it when it dropped and tacitly endorsing it as the vision of the future from certified prophet Daniel K are like, “oh it’s directionally correct, but too aggressive” Note that we are over halfway through 2025 and the earliest prediction of agents entering the work force is already fucked. So if you are a ‘super forecaster’ (guru) you can do some sleight of hand now to come out against the model knowing the first goal post was already missed and the tower of conditional probabilities that rest on it is already breaking.

Funniest part is even one of authors themselves seem to be panicking too as even they can tell they are losing the crowd and is falling back on this “It’s not the most likely future, it’s the just the most probable.” A truly meaningless statement if your goal is to guide policy since events with arbitrarily low probability density can still be the “most probable” given enough different outcomes.

Also, there’s literally mass brain uploading in AI-2027. This strikes me as physically impossible in any meaningful way in the sense that the compute to model all molecular interactions in a brain would take a really, really, really big computer. But I understand if your religious beliefs and cultural convictions necessitate big snake 🐍 to upload you, then I will refrain from passing judgement.