As a Ukrainian, I would say there is a grain of truth in what you say, with several important caveats.

First, Moscovia already collapsed as a nation due to many centuries of imperial history. At least since the beginning of the 20th century, being Russian is not about nationality, it is about belonging to the Russian empire. This is the last extant empire in Europe, oppressing numerous nations, and it is inevitably going to break down like all the others.

Interestingly, Moscovia started as a colony of the Kyiv Rus, and the history might repeat, but in a quite different manner. Since the empire is clearly inefficient, it will be gradually taken over by other more efficient states, albeit not by old style occupation. Plain occupation is impossible because of the huge territory.

Somalia story gives clues on what is likely to happen next. Many years ago Somalia leadership wanted to restore a “great Somali” as an imperial revanchist project. Then it lost the war and broke down. Now neighbouring states have established orderly protectorates near their borders, while there’s still mayhem in the center of Somalia.

Similarly, the EU, and Ukraine in particular, may support civil order in new protectorates on neighbouring territories, with a perspective of eventual EU expansion further East.

Here’s the link: https://euromaidanpress.com/2026/07/06/ukrainian-drones-killed-russian-buk-m3-then-air-force-flew-through-hole-it-left-video/

You are right, stringent controls will be necessary.

If it denuclearizes, why not.